The COP28 caravan has left Dubai, and while the desert dust is settling, it's time for introspection. Do we have reasons to be COPtimistic? Is this year's agreement text historical, or are the words "transitioning away from fossil fuels" just an empty promise? How do we ensure that decisions taken at COP28 will be implemented and future policies will be based on the latest scientific consensus? We need ways to comprehensively track the reduction of fossil fuels and, at the same time, monitor the evolution of natural sinks. Earth Observation initiatives, such as ICOS, have the means to provide independent, reliable data and the expertise to interpret it to support the Parties in their transition efforts.
ICOS actively participated in the last COP, organising, co-organising, and being invited or represented at no less than seven side-events. ICOS's representatives, Werner Kutsch and Emmanuel Salmon, pushed key messages under one overarching banner: "The truth is in the atmosphere". The side-events have set the stage for concrete examples of science-supported climate action and achievements. Three main insights emerged from the hours of expert -and often passionate- discussions.
1. Citizen-based climate action can yield fantastic results
Examples from the Resilience Academy realisations show that citizen engagement can achieve scientific advances, especially when involving younger populations. Frugal innovation and fit-for-purpose geospatial tools that embrace local resources are integral to this strategy to answer local goals built on actual needs. These needs expressed by local communities are the keystone to building efficient climate services that respect local knowledge and skillsets. This bottom-up, efficiency-first framework is primarily designed for lower-income communities but can be transposed and adapted to any community affected by climate-related issues.
2. It is urgent to address the lack of in situ observation in systematically understudied regions
Large swaths of the Earth are not covered by in situ observations, leading to large knowledge gaps, cascading uncertainties for satellite calibration and verification, as well as for model training and validation. For political, geographical, logistical and political reasons, Africa -as a whole- has historically lacked efficient in situ observation infrastructures. This issue is being addressed by initiatives such as the KADI project, but long-term engagement and durable international cooperation are needed to sustain the construction, maintenance and development of a ground-based observation network in Africa.
The ocean is another enormous challenge for in situ observations. Because of accessibility and cost-related reasons, the ocean remains an unknown giant despite absorbing over 20% of our emissions. Through projects like GEORGE, cooperation between existing initiatives and the deployment of autonomous measurement devices should help fill the knowledge gap, at least in some parts. But time is pressing, and massive investments are needed to accelerate the movement.
3. Earth Observation is a global matter that needs to be coordinated globally.
Earth observation comprises three independent pillars -ground-based and remote sensing observations, along with modelling- that create a crucial value chain together. This value chain produces the actionable data that decision-makers, from the local level to the United Nations, need for building, tracking and assessing their climate action policies. Initiatives from the three Earth Observation pillars must be coordinated globally to deliver the accessible, reliable, independent data products the world needs. Led by the World Meteorological Organization, the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch initiative is answering that need, with a deployment due in 2028, with ICOS playing an important role.
In light of the final text adopted by the Parties, surely not directly influenced by the ICOS activities, "the truth is in the atmosphere" reads as a premonition. And a warning. Research and systematic observation have provided instrumental support to the Parties in formulating and implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement. The COP28 has re-affirmed the role of science in Art. 6 of the concluding document: it “commits to accelerate action in this critical decade on the basis of the best available science, …” But how exactly can systematic observations support accelerated climate action in the coming years?
COP28's final document has created a new situation. The text makes the Parties accountable in front of humanity. In Art 28 the COP “further recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 °C pathways and calls on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches” and lists among others “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. This may read like a soft compromise. However, it’s the first time that the world has agreed on tackling fossil fuels as the major source of climate change. There is no alternative scenario as greenhouse gas concentrations rise fast in the atmosphere. "Transitioning away from fossil fuels" is vague, but it's a commitment.
The Earth Observation community has the tools and skills to track precisely and assess independently the Parties' efforts in reducing their fossil fuel emissions, and, with that, to complement existing national inventory reporting. The Earth Observation community can provide high-definition actionable data on the state of the atmosphere in real-time, not only to policymakers but also to IGOs, NGOs, journalists and citizens. This science-based empowerment will contribute to spreading scientific insights and create a soft way to pressure decision-makers into effectively transitioning away from fossil fuels because the truth about their commitments is in the atmosphere.
Another crucial insight from this COP is the importance of diplomacy and the limited independent scientific representation at that level. For scientific initiatives such as ICOS, participating in the events is great for sharing insights and messages with a broad, often non-scientific audience that would otherwise remain out of reach. But to weigh on the discussions and influence the final text, high-level experts from the Earth Observation communities should have a seat at the negotiation table. These experts could be part of the negotiations as topical, independent voices without belonging to national teams. These experts should not be consultants but rather "science diplomats" with no colours other than the ones of their scientific community. By tightly enmeshing science and politics, we can accelerate the change we need to make Earth a better place to live, for all.