Keeping tabs on carbon removals and emissions from managed land, forests and soils is key for the European Union, not only for the reports it sends to the United Nations, but also to inform EU actions pushing forward with the Green Deal.
Climate policy is complex and evolving rapidly. The EU has new and revised laws like the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Regulation (LULUCF), the Carbon Removals Certification Framework and the proposal for the Forest Monitoring Regulation. All of these laws aim to increase the efficiency of carbon removals and storage by these sectors. They need to be underpinned by monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems and techniques.
MRV systems are key to understanding what is happening on the ground, providing a picture of the condition of soil and biomass across the EU. They can also help support decision making and aid the implementation of EU laws.
EU member states and associated countries can also use the MRV of carbon fluxes to understand, firstly, the implications of policies affecting farmers and foresters when land is converted away from agricultural production. Secondly, MRV systems can give insights into what the drivers of biodiversity loss are and, thirdly, how to best use incentives to drive change.
The EU’s use of MRV set to improve
Every year, EU countries put together a greenhouse gas inventory, using national statistics, satellite imagery and ground-based measurements. The data is checked by a third party, the European Environment Agency, which helps compile the collective inventory for the EU. Then, the data is sent to the UNFCCC.
EU data on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon removals from agriculture, forests and soils is now set to improve, thanks to data from Copernicus satellite monitoring. This includes the European Environment Agency developing an EU-wide data set to compare what land is used for (forest, cropland, etc.) and make data available quicker to help member states keep track in line with annual reporting required by regulations.
This improved monitoring will allow EU countries to design, employ and adjust the implementation of EU policies in a way that helps them meet their climate targets.
Up to 2021, under the Kyoto Protocol, much of the monitoring and reporting done by EU countries was based on aggregated statistics. EU countries are now set to go further, by using digital mapping, remote sensing data and a combination of other geographically explicit datasets to create a quick and precise understanding of land management, even down to hectare scale.
For example, from 2026 onward, EU countries will enhance their basic estimates of removals by applying more detailed and locally relevant empirical data and input information – so-called ‘Tier 2’ (see glossary page 57) monitoring under IPCC.
Then, for future development, vulnerable types of land cover and use, high carbon stock areas (such as peatlands, or dense, old forests) or places with adaptation action plans should have estimates based on modelling methods (IPCC Tier 3) using a variety of more detailed inputs, such as ground-based measurements and remote sensing.
Such data could help EU member states overcome a major stumbling block in policy implementation: delays in getting high quality, timely data on forests and agricultural land.
Improving implementation of mitigation actions
To ensure the availability of high-quality data across the EU, and to complement mitigation action through LULUCF policy implementation, like changing land management, the Forest Monitoring Law, tabled in November 2023, foresees a way to compile standardised Earth observation and ground-based measurements for forest land use.
Monitoring data derived from satellite imagery - combined with ground-based data to make sure it is correctly capturing the reality of how soils and managed lands are contributing to climate actions – will be crucial to ensuring that EU countries realise in time if the carbon capture potential of forests is declining. It will also help keep track of natural disturbances, the frequency of which is expected to increase as climate change worsens.
Alongside this, MRV is key to the EU’s Carbon Removal Certification Framework. This legislation, which was agreed by the European Parliament and EU countries in spring 2024, aims to verify the carbon removals and emissions reductions achieved in the land use sector by individual actors.
To provide a clear incentive in an otherwise unregulated carbon market, it is crucial to know when and where the carbon removal is certified. This avoids double counting and the double claiming of benefits. Because of this, the certification process also needs to build upon a foundation of geographic information, supplemented by ground data such as from the ICOS network.
To 2030 and beyond
With 2030 already on the horizon, it is crucial that EU countries roll out MRV enhancements within the next two to three years to properly track the implementation of policies.
In the past, similar transitions into using digital geographic data and remote sensing technology have been rolled out in a comparable time frame. For example, two decades ago, the Common Agricultural Policy went through a similar transformation in the space of a few years. The benefits of that transition in terms of the improvements in the way farmers received subsidies made it a tremendous step forward. However, achieving such a paradigm shift requires EU countries, the European Environment Agency and other organisations to work together.
In the run up to 2040 the improved data gathered will help inform new policy decisions. By 2040, the EU could target a 90% net emissions reduction, as suggested in the Commission’s recent 2040 communication.
The European Commission’s analysis envisions that emissions reductions and removals in land and agriculture will become more significant towards 2050 - partly because other sectors’ emissions will have decreased, and the EU will need to maintain or increase removals.
Altogether, the next two decades will be significant for policy implementation across the land sector, and this will need to be monitored with improved, collaborative techniques to help tackle the climate crisis.
Relevant EU legislation
On top of improving the inventories of its member states, observation-based MRV systems have the potential to inform specific legislation in the European Union.
Regulation on land, land use change and forestry (LULUCF): This legislation sets out how the land use sector contributes to the EU’s climate goals. It has a separate land-based net carbon removals target of 310 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
Directive on Soil Monitoring and Resilience: This proposed law aims to have all soils in healthy condition by 2050. One stated method of achieving this is a comprehensive and coherent monitoring framework. An MRV system that incorporates accurate observations would greatly help with tracking the success of the soil management rules.
EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework: The proposal aims to ensure high quality carbon removals in the EU and establish a governance certification system to avoid greenwashing, by correctly applying and enforcing the EU quality framework. An MRV system that incorporates observations has the potential to greatly assist the implementation of verification checks by independent certification bodies.
Forest Monitoring Law: Forests play a key role in responding to climate change. So, it is crucial to have precise, complete and up-to-date information on European forests. The regulation would provide open access to detailed, accurate and timely information on the status and trends of EU forests.
By May 2024, only the LULUCF regulation has been adopted and is in force, the rest are in proposal phase.